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可惜，通货再膨胀并不那么简单。Alas, reflation is not so simple.

不过，他们的通货再膨胀目标还是“实现”了。But their goal of reflation happened anyway.

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大规模的通货再膨胀将带来令人讨厌的债务遗留问题。The great reflation will come with a nasty debt hangover.

经济实现复苏的时间越长，所谓的通货再膨胀交易也就需要更长的时间才能带来回报。And the longer the economy takes to rebound, the longer it will take for the so-called reflation trade to pay off.

没有生产力的基础，通货和忍耐达到了极限，这些泡沫资产的必须压缩。Without a productive foundation, as reflation and forbearance reach their limits, those bubble assets must deflate.

内需再膨胀的题材持续会是2006年剩馀时间最吸引人的股市题材。The domestic reflation scenario continues to be the most attractive Japanese equity theme for the remainder of 2006.

在目前资产价值回升及企业盈利增长步伐可能放缓的环境下，我们的投资更具选择性。In an environment where reflation of asset values, and growth in profits, may slow, we are investing more selectively.

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此外，如果日本消费者心理可以从通缩改变为再次通胀，日本很可能从中受益。Also, Japan may benefit from some inflation if Japanese-consumer psychology finally shifts to reflation from deflation.

我们回吐了部份第四季超越大盘的表现，但认为资产再膨胀是一个有力题材，在2006年都会表现良好。We have given up some of the 4Q outperformance but regard the asset reflation as a powerful theme that will do well through 2006.

第一，根据经济理论，财政及货币支出可以达到效果，一些成功的苗头也已经开始显现。First, because economic theory tells us that fiscal and monetary reflation will succeed and hints of success are starting to show.

在日本电报电话公司的样本中，其IPO和资产价格膨胀之间的关系显示了大部分中小投资者对于报价的参与程度。Regarding the link between IPO's and asset reflation to the example of NTT shows a large proportion of retail investor participation in the offer.

他推荐投资者买入能源和原材料类股以及一只上市交易黄金基金，以便在未来一到三年从事通货再膨胀交易。He is recommending energy and materials stocks, as well as an exchange-traded gold fund, to play the reflation trade over the next one to three years.

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总的来说，政府通货再膨胀政策所面临的最常见问题是通过进口而导致该政策产生的福利流失到国外。In general, one of the commonest problems of government reflation is that the benefits leak out beyond your borders because the programme sucks in imports.

除此之外，随着中国经济增长率减半，捉襟见肘的银行体系为政府巨大的通货膨胀和在困境中挣扎的企业提供资金的能力都是要解决的问题。On top of that, the capacity of an overstretched banking system to finance both the government's huge reflation and struggling enterprises as China's growth rate halves is in question.