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牛鞭效应的风险分析。Risk analysis of the bullwhip effect.

提高预测的准确性是缓解供应链牛鞭效应的关键。Prediction accuracy is the key of in prevention of Bullwhip effect in supply chain.

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牛鞭效应是一个衡量供应链管理运作是否良好的重要指标参数。Bullwhip is an important parameter to determine that supply chain management is good or not.

目前，学术界针对供应链中牛鞭效应的研究已经非常深入。Till now, quite a lot of research works have been done about the bullwhip effect in the supply chain.

本文研究供应链中长鞭效应产生的原因及相应的弱化方法。In this paper. the essence and mitigating methods of the bullwhip effect in the supply chain is researched.

听到这有趣的声音，我会联想到一个狂野的西部表演家正一边挥舞着牛鞭，一边开着吸尘器。Interesting sound. I would have guessed a Wild West performer was practicing with a bullwhip while also vacuuming.

在借鉴大量的研究成果的基础上，分析了牛鞭效应产生的原因，并提出了相应的消减牛鞭效应的对策建议。Then through the model studies the cause of bullwhip effects, and makes corresponding advices to tame the bullwhip.

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应用随机控制理论方法，设计了抑制长鞭效应的随机控制策略。By applying stochastic control theory, a stochastic control strategy that can reduce the bullwhip effect is designed.

最后，讨论了信息共享对控制该种策略下牛鞭效应的效果。Finally, we discuss the action of participative information to control the bullwhip effect of this policy generation.

首先分析讨论了供应商在供不应求的情况下应用线性分配机制所导致的牛鞭效应。Discusses the bullwhip effect resulting from the linear assignment mechanism which the suppliers applied to tight market.

根据上述波动现象从波动幅度、波动时间及阶层传递放大率来观察长鞭效应现象。Based on the above scenarios, the bullwhip effect can be observed by inventory fluctuation, time and level transfer ratio.

牛鞭效应形成的原因主要有需求预测、库存管理、批量定货、交货周期、价格波动等。The causes of bullwhip effect include demand forecast, repertory management, batch order, delivery cycle, price wave, etc.

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并在国内外学者研究的基础上，分析了抑制长鞭效应的相应对策。On the basis of scholars's researches, this dissertation brings forward correspondent countermeasures against bullwhip effect.

牛鞭效应是南水北调水资源供应链信息管理中的一个重要参数。Bullwhip effect is an important parameter in the information management in SCM of Water Resource of South-to-North Water Transfer.

因此充分了解和掌握牛鞭效应成因和对策是提升供应链效率关键。Therefore fully understand and grasp the causes and the bullwhip effect measures is to enhance the efficiency of key supply chain.

因此，在供应链中实现信息共享是控制“牛鞭效应”、提高供应链管理效率的有效途径。Thus, to make information be shared is an effective way to control "bullwhip effect" and improve the efficiency of a supply chain.

在不同资金约束下，供应链尽管仍表现出牛鞭效应，但其效果却比资金不受限的情况要弱。Under funding constraints, the bullwhip effect is still obvious although it tends to be weaker than it is in the normal situation.

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但是牛鞭效应作为供给链管理范畴特有的现象严重影响着供给链的效率。However bullwhip effect as a supply-chain management area-specific phenomenon of a serious impact on the efficiency of the supply chain.

因而，决策者个人因素是牛鞭效应控制过程中不可忽略的因素。Thus, the policy-maker's individual factor is an important factor which cannot be neglected in the controlling process of bullwhip effect.

指出了牛鞭效应产生的原因是由于供应链系统需求预测所表现出的正反馈动力学特性。The paper claims bullwhip effect is caused by the active feedback dynamics feature presented by the demand predicts of supply chain system.